Unlocking Value: Empaveli's Market Dominance and Future Growth
Empaveli's Commercial Potential Underestimated by Current Valuation
Apellis Pharmaceuticals' stock has been upgraded by Bank of America Securities (BofA), which believes the market has not fully recognized the commercial potential of Empaveli in treating rare kidney diseases, specifically C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) and immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN).
Early Uptake and Market Penetration for Empaveli
Empaveli (pegcetacoplan) received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval in July 2025 for C3G and IC-MPGN in patients aged 12 and older. The drug is also approved for adults with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). In the third quarter, the company reported $27 million in U.S. net product revenue for Empaveli, with 267 new patient start forms since its approval. This represents approximately 5% penetration of the estimated 5,000 U.S. patient market, demonstrating encouraging early traction with payers and no full coverage denials.
Competitive Advantages and Financial Projections
Empaveli's broad label, covering IC-MPGN, pediatric, and post-transplant patients, along with its perceived stronger efficacy compared to Novartis AG's Fabhalta (iptacopan), is driving its rapid adoption. BofA projects peak U.S. sales of $508 million by 2033, with 20% peak penetration, contributing an additional $10 per share to the price forecast, which stands at $28. The upgrade to Buy from Neutral by BofA reflects the ongoing momentum of Empaveli's launch in C3G, suggesting further upside to analyst estimates.
Syfovre's Future: Overcoming Challenges with Innovation
The company's geographic atrophy (GA) business, Syfovre, faced challenges in 2025 due to a reduction in charitable foundation funding. Despite this, Apellis anticipates continued modest growth in 2026. The planned filing for approval of a Syfovre prefilled syringe in the first half of 2026 is seen as a near-term competitive advantage. This innovation is expected to expand Syfovre's market share and contribute to the overall growth of the market, with the impact anticipated in 2027. Syfovre currently adds $16 per share to the price forecast. Following these positive developments, Apellis Pharmaceuticals shares saw a 2.37% increase, trading at $21.52.